Saturday, 2 May 2015
Canada is North America's Great Oil Security Blanket
The Keystone XL pipeline debate that unfortunately continues to drag on has pushed Canada's oil production potential into the spotlight. Canada is our neighbor and leading trade partner, with U.S. goods and private services trade with Canada totaling around $750 billion a year, interestingly equal parts imports and exports. More oil connections are a natural match. The U.S. is the largest consumer in the world, 80% above second place China, and Canada is an emerging powerhouse, now producing 4.1 million b/d, 33% more than in 2005. U.S. energy policy must realize Canadian oil for what it is: North America's great oil security blanket. Canadian oil is also "ethical oil" since Canada is a democracy and free market sought by investors that desire less risk. This is in contrast to members of OPEC, an "oil cartel" that holds 6 of the top 7 oil reserve holders. For the U.S., the real importance of Canada is an expanding capacity to export oil - rising production, amid flat demand. All three categories of oil production continue to increase, crude oil, natural gas liquids, and unconventional oil sands. Canada's growing ability to export is unique compared to the other top exporters, countries that are young and consuming more of their own oil. To illustrate, of the top 10 crude oil exporters, Canada has the highest median age at 42 years, versus 39 for Russia and the other eight nations all below age 30. Canada is a well developed economy, where incremental oil needs are slow growing. Competition for liquid fuels will be increasingly fierce, with global demand rising a Saudi Arabia worth of production by 2025 (12 million b/d).
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